بررسی تغییرات در روند طولانی‌مدت تولید گندم و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در استان خراسان شمالی: عملکرد گندم آبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اگروتکنولوژی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانش‌آموخته دکترای اگرواکولوژی، گروه اگروتکنولوژی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

به‌منظور تعیین عوامل محیطی و مدیریتی بر عملکرد گندم آبی در نواحی مختلف استان خراسان شمالی، روند تغییرات عملکرد در بازه زمانی 2017-1980 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سپس مراحل رشدی و عملکرد گیاه گندم توسط مدل DSSAT، با استفاده از مجموعه داده‌های گرید‌بندی‌شده AgMERRA شبیه‌سازی شد و اثر تغییرات دما و بارندگی بر عملکرد به‌وسیله آنالیز پنل دیتا مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفت. طبق نتایج این تحقیق، 63 درصد از تغییرات عملکرد گندم آبی توسط عوامل محیطی (دما و بارندگی) و 37 درصد آن توسط عوامل مدیریتی توضیح داده می‌شوند. دماهای بالاتر از 30 درجه سانتی‌گراد، دمای میانگین، برهمکنش میزان و دفعات بارندگی در طول فصل رشد، اثر معنی‌داری بر عملکرد داشتند. طول فصل رشد در تمام مناطق موردمطالعه شیب کاهشی داشت. مطالعه مراحل حساس رشدی طی سال‌های خوب و ضعیف (به‌ترتیب دارای عملکرد بالا و پایین دانه گندم) حاکی از این است که در تمام سال‌های ضعیف، دماهای حداقل، پایین‌تر از حد بحرانی (11- درجه سانتی‌گراد) بودند. در تمامی نواحی و در تمام سال‌های موردمطالعه، گندم در مرحله پر شدن دانه (خمیری نرم و خمیری سخت) با دمای بالاتر از 30 درجه سانتی‌گراد مواجه بود، بنابراین هر اندازه که تاریخ کاشت از مهر ماه (تاریخ کاشت رایج در مناطق موردمطالعه) به تعویق افتد، کاهش شدید عملکرد را در پی خواهد داشت. به‌طورکلی، نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که با به‌کار بستن شیوه‌های مدیریتی مؤثر، به‌ویژه انتخاب تاریخ کاشت مناسب می‌توان در جهت بهبود عملکرد گندم اقدام نمود.

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