The Outlook for Food Security in Razavi Khorasan Province (2024-2033) from the Perspective of Crop Products (Based on Water Capacity)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• A Keshavarz ^{1, 2}
• A Zarea Feizabadi ^{1, 3}
• F Yaghoubi ⁴

¹ National Center for Strategic Studies of Agriculture and Water use at Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Tehran, Iran

² Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Seed and Plant Improvement Institute, Tehran, Iran

³ Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Research Center of Agricultural and Natural Resources of Razavi Khorasan, Mashhad, Iran

⁴ Department of Agrotechnology, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

10.22067/jcesc.2024.87489.1319

Abstract

Introduction
The food security of any country is directly dependent on the production of its agricultural sector, and any disruption in the production process of this sector can directly threaten the food, social, economic and even political security of the country. In other words, the agricultural sector, as a productive sector, is responsible for eliminating and reducing poverty and ensuring food security. In the current situation, due to the ever-increasing demand and the significant growth of the population, the indiscriminate and incorrect exploitation of limited and non-renewable resources and reserves, as well as the occurrence of challenges such as climate change, ensuring food security and maintaining it, are of great importance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the availability of crop products in Razavi Khorasan province in two horizons of 5 and 10 years under two scenarios of full irrigation and deficit irrigation in accordance with the water capacity of the province and to provide appropriate solutions.
Materials and Methods
This study was carried out in Razavi Khorasan province for the time period of 2017-2020 as the baseline and 2024-2028 and 2024-2033 as 5- and 10-year horizons, respectively. The information needed for this study was obtained through documentary and library studies, generally by referring to the official centers that publish the country's information and published documents (especially the Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Razavi Khorasan province), field information and also by completing the questionnaire from national experts and holding meetings with stakeholders and experts. Finally, the changes in the harvested area, yield, production, volume of water consumption and water productivity of important irrigated (under two scenarios of full irrigation and deficit irrigation) and rainfed crops, as well as indicators of per-capita consumption, production, demand, trade, and the percentage of self-reliance of these crops were estimated and evaluated in 5- and 10-year horizons compared to the baseline (2017-2020).
Results and Discussion
According to the results, if the objectives of this study are achieved, the crop water requirement and total water consumption will decrease across both scenarios and time horizons, while water productivity will improve compared to the baseline. In the projected horizon periods, the yield of both irrigated and rainfed crops will increase compared to the baseline. The harvested area of irrigated crops will decrease, while the harvested area of rainfed crops will expand. However, under deficit irrigation conditions, the production of both rainfed and irrigated crops will rise, whereas irrigated crop production under full irrigation conditions will decline, aligning with water balance objectives. These changes will occur mainly due to the increase in the harvested area and production of fodder sorghum, silage, fodder beet, and autumn beet and the decrease in the harvest area and production of alfalfa, irrigated vegetable crops, and spring beet. Despite the increase in the demand of important crop products of the province in 5- and 10-year horizons by 10 and 17% (considering population growth and improvement in per-capita consumption), respectively, the amount of production of these products will decrease by 2% in 5-year horizon and increase by only 1% in 10-year horizon. Therefore, it is predicted that the self-reliance of the province's total production will decrease from 74% in the baseline to 68% and 67% in the 5- and 10-year horizons, respectively. In order to achieve the results of this study, solutions such as paying attention to aquifers and watersheds, cultivation of fallow lands, increasing soil organic matter, real development of conservation agriculture, development of autumn and waiting planting, development of alternative crops (especially fodder crops), and provision, production, distribution, and consumption of inputs in a timely and appropriate manner are suggested.
Conclusion
In total, the results of this research showed that the proposed production pattern for crops in Razavi Khorasan province and 5 and 10-year horizons will be consistent with the water capacity of the province, especially in the deficit irrigation scenario. However, the realization of the results of this study requires the categories of "research", "technology", "education and empowerment", and "promotion of achievements". 

Keywords

• Deficit irrigation
• Per-capita consumption
• Production
• Self-reliance
• Water productivity

---

©2025 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source

References

1. Arora, N. K., & Mishra, I. (2019). United nations sustainable development goals 2030 and environmental sustainability: Race against time. Environmental Sustainability, 2(4), 339-342.
2. Askari Bozayeh, F., Mohammadzadeh, R., & Azarin Far, Y. (2020). Water and its landscape in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 7(2), 33-44. (in Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v7i2.85789
3. Eslami, A. (2020). Effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 7(4), 83-87. (in Persian)
4. Ghods (2021). Watershed and aquifer management plans are the most basic solution to reduce the effects of drought. https://www.qudsonline.ir/news/755325
5. Asgharzadeh, A., Gobadijanbaz, Gh., Motevalli, S., Taherian, M., & Kouhi, M. (2024). Examining the limit profiles of temperature and precipitation under the conditions of climate change in Razavi Khorasan province. Journal of Climate Research, 15, 63-78. (in Persian with English abstract)
6. Javaheri, M. A., Nadi, M., & Najafinezhad, H. (2020). Use of agro-climatic zoning in determining zoning of determining the appropriate growth period, planting date and harvesting date of autumn sowing of sugar beet in Kerman province. Plant Ecophysiology, 12(41), 148-161. (in Persian with English abstract)
7. Khorasan (2023). The statistical challenge of water. http://khorasanrazavi.khorasannews.com/Newspaper/MobileBlock?NewspaperBlockID=193583
8. Khorasanizadeh, H., Ghasemieh, H., Soleimani-Motlagh, M., & Mizavand, M. (2023). Investigating quantitative status of groundwater resources in Kashan plain, perspective and providing appropriate solutions. Water Resources, 15(55), 53-74. (in Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.30495/wej.2023.27982.2313
9. Lebaschi, M. H. (2017). The necessity of producing medicinal plants in the rainfed lands of the country. Iran Nature, 2(4), 6-9. (in Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22092/irn.2017.113376
10. National and strategic document of food security 2022-2031, (2021). Deputy of agricultural education and promotion, office of knowledge network and social media, by order of the supreme council of cultural revolution. (in Persian)
11. Organization of Agricultural-Jihad of Khorasan Razavi. (2022). Agricultural outlook of Razavi Khorasan province in 2021. Accessed 21 April 2022. https://koaj.ir/Modules/showframework.aspx?RelFacilityId=1241&ObjectID=252&FrameworkPageType=SEC.
12. Pilvar, R., & Rajabi, M. (2019). Property rights of water wells; the arena of transformation from private law to public law. Journal of Research and Development in Comparative Law, 2(2), 67-91. (in Persian). https://doi.org/22034/law.2019.239542
13. Poshtvan, H., & Rajabi Hashtjin, M. (2023). Allocation of Water Resources: Risks and Opportunities. Sabzran Press, Tehran, Iran. pp. 264.
14. Poursepahi, H. (2022). Studies on water in the eastern basin of the country (Khorasan Razavi province). National Center for Strategic Studies of Agriculture and Water, Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture of Iran. (in Persian)
15. Rahmani, A., Sefidkan, F., Fayyaz, M., Jafari, A. A. & Motamedi, J. (2022). The Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands' approach towards the country's wetlands to preserve the basic resources. Iran's Nature, 7(4), 87-102. (in Persian). https://doi.org/10.22092/IRN.2022.127537
16. Reinsdorf, E., & Koch, H. J. (2013). Modeling crown temperature of winter sugar beet and its application in risk assessment for frost killing in Central Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 182, 21-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.08.001
17. Rutten, M., Van Dijk, M., Van Rooij, W., & Hilderink, H. (2014). Land use dynamics, climate change, and food security in Vietnam: A global-to-local modeling approach. World Development, 59, 29-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.020
18. Shariatmadar, M., Keshavarz, A., Kosravi, A., Kianpour, R., & Farsi, M.M. (2020). Report of Iran's food security, evaluation of Iran's agricultural and food self-reliance with a look at the supply and consumption of food in the society, 1998-2018. National Center for Strategic Studies of Agriculture and Water use at Iran's Chamber of Commerce. (in Persian)
19. Simtowe, F., Shiferaw, B., Kassie, M., Abate, T., Silim, S., Siambi, M., Madzonga, O., Muricho, G., & Kananji, G. (2010). Assessment of the current situation and future outlooks for the pigeonpea sub-sector in Malawi. Nairobi: ICRISAT, pp. 1-52.
20. Soltani, A., Zand, A., Alimagham, M., Nehbandani, A., Barani, H., Soltani, A., Torabi, B., Zeinali, A., Mirkarimi, Sh., & Jolaei, R. (2019). Analysis of the country's food security until 2050 by modeling the correlation of water, land, food and environment: Perspective and necessary policies. Agricultural Research, Education and Promotion Organization. (in Persian)
21. Studies on the water requirement of important agricultural and horticultural crops in the eastern provinces of Iran. (2023). National Center for Strategic Studies of Agriculture and Water, Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture of Iran. (in Persian)
22. Taleghani, D. F., Moharamzadeh, M., Hemayati, S. S., Mohammadian, R., & Farahmand, R. (2011). Effect of sowing and harvest time on yield of autumn-sown sugar beet in Moghan region in Iran. Seed and Plant Production, 27(3), 355-371. (in Persian with English abstract)
23. Tavasoli, A., Tabatabaee, J., Hoseinnia, A., Bagherzade, M., & Jabbari, H. (2016). Rainwater harvesting for Urmia Island (I.R.Iran) wildlife. Journal of Rainwater Catchment Systems, 3(4), 57-71. (in Persian with English abstract)
24. Yousefi, A., Sarai Tabrizi, M., Porhemmat, J. & Babazadeh, H. (2022). Studying groundwater resources balancing plan under climate change conditions (case study: Hashtgerd study area). Iranian Water Research Journal, 16(45), 15-32. (in Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22034/iwrj.2022.10020.2340
25. Zare-Feizabadi, A., Keshavarz, A., Shariatmadar, M., Hassanpour, A., Kianpour, R., Fakkari, B., & Farssi, A. (2022). Report of the pathology and analysis of agricultural sector for the period of 1996-2019. National Center for Strategic Studies of Agriculture and Water use at Iran's Chamber of Commerce. (in Persian)
26. Zarei, N. (2023). Governance of the agricultural sector and its consequences on food security. Economic Security, 11(4), 41-54. (in Persian)
27. Zarrin, A. (2021). The temporal extension of droughts in the coming decades and the need to pay attention to the drought management plan. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 8(1), 1-1. (in Persian with English abstract)