ارزیابی ریسک خشکسالی گندم دیم (Triticum aestivum L.) با استفاده از شاخص‌های آسیب‌پذیری و مخاطره خشکسالی (مطالعه موردی: استان‌های خراسان رضوی و خراسان شمالی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اگروتکنولوژی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 بانک کشاورزی خراسان رضوی، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک همانند سایر مناطق در معرض انواع ریسک­‌ها قرار دارند، امّا ریسک‌­هایی نظیر خشکسالی با شدت بیشتری این مناطق را تهدید می‌­نماید. در این مطالعه به بررسی شاخص‌های آسیب‌پذیری و مخاطره به‌عنوان مؤلفه‌های ریسک خشکسالی در مناطق مستعد تولید گندم دیم در شمال شرق ایران (هفت شهرستانِ استان خراسان رضوی و پنج شهرستانِ استان خراسان شمالی) طی سال‌های زراعی 89-1388 لغایت 97-1396 پرداخته شده است. شاخص آسیب‌پذیری نوعی شاخص ترکیبی است که حساسیت، در معرض قرار گرفتن و ظرفیت تطابق‌پذیری سه جزء تعیین‌کننده آن می‌باشند. در این مطالعه، ظرفیت تطابق‌پذیری تحت تأثیر دو عامل ظرفیت نگهداری آب خاک و سطح مکانیزاسیون می‌باشد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که در 11 شهرستان و یا به‌عبارتی در 92 درصد از شهرستان‌های مورد مطالعه، گندم دیم با ریسک کم تا متوسط تولید می‌شود. میزان ریسک خشکسالی تولید گندم دیم در شهرستان سرخس زیاد و در شش شهرستان (فاروج، کلات، درگز، قوچان، نیشابور و تربت‌حیدریه) کم می‌باشد. شهرستان‌های مذکور از نظر شاخص آسیب‌پذیری در رده کمتر آسیب‌پذیر تا آسیب‌پذیر قرار دارند، همچنین میزان ظرفیت تطابق‌پذیری در این شش شهرستان زیاد است که دلیل عمده آن ظرفیت بالای نگهداری آب خاک می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که بیشتر شهرستان‌هایی که شاخص مخاطره خشکسالی در آن‌ها خیلی زیاد است، در استان خراسان شمالی واقع‌شده‌اند، ولی این شاخص در شهرستان‌های فاروج، درگز و قوچان کم می‌باشد. ارزیابی ریسک در فرآیند مدیریت ریسک و اتخاذ راهکارهای هوشمندانه در این حوزه از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار بوده که پرداختن به آن می‌تواند کمک مؤثری به امنیت غذایی و توسعه پایدار نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

©2025 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source.

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 06 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 05 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 10 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 21 اسفند 1403

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