بررسی تولید کلزا در شرایط خشکی و تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

خشکی دائماً تولیدات کشاورزی را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. آسیب‌پذیری کشاورزی به‌عنوان آستانه‌ای شناخته می‌شود که در آن بیشترین احتمال صدمه دیدن سیستم‌های کشاورزی در اثر خشکی وجود دارد. در این تحقیق آسیب‌پذیری کلزا در اثر خشکی در شهرستان‌های مشهد، سبزوار و تربت‌حیدریه و تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر آن‌ها مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این مطالعه شاخص خشکیUNEP در راستای ارزیابی خشکی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. اثرات تغییر اقلیم توسط مدل‌های HadCM3 و IPCM4 تحت سه سناریو (A1B، A2 و B1 برای سه دوره زمانی 2030-2011، 2065-2046 و 2099-2080) توسط مولد آب و هوایی LARS شبیه‌سازی شدند. عملکرد پتانسیل کلزا توسط مدل WOFOST شبیه‌سازی شد. برای کمّی نمودن آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به شرایط خشکی، آسیب‌پذیری به‌عنوان تابعی از حساسیت (SEN)، وضعیت سلامت نسبت به آستانه تخریب و در معرض خطر قرار گرفتن در نظر گرفته شد. آسیب‌پذیری با در نظر گرفتن خشکی‌های شدید (VEXPL و VEXPS) در سال‌های منتخب و آسیب‌پذیری مورد انتظار (EVEXP) با در نظر گرفتن فراوانی مورد انتظار خشکی محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که در تمامی مناطق مورد مطالعه تولید کلزا طی دوره پایه نسبت به خشکی بسیار حساس بوده و مقایر تخمین زده شده بیشتر از 200 بودند. همین روند در سال های شبیه سازی شده نیز مشاهده شد. همچنین پیش بینی شد که کلزا در دوره های آینده همانند دوره پایه نسبت به خشکی بسیار آسیب پذیر بوده و مقادیر آسیب پذیری بالاتر از 20 تخمین زده شدند (20

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